25.3 NATURAL VIRTUE
We have fresh air at home. Or do we?
These next two trends may be a bit less fully formed than the first couple. They’ve been a sort of struggle for me to package and articulate, though all the pieces are there. Maybe that’s because the drivers are quite depressing. Nature — our origin, our world, our environment, what gives us life — is becoming increasingly intertwined with both financial inaccessibility and illusions of moral superiority, spawning Natural Virtue.1 I think the concept of environmental exclusivity will be an influential theme for 2025 and the second half of this decade.
This is a more extreme evolution of an already well-entrenched trajectory: Since the industrial revolution, spending time outdoors has been considered aspirational, hence the appeal of sunbathing. Since the advent of cheap processed food, eating organic produce became a luxury, hence a boom in nutritional wellness culture. Since technology took over our lives, unplugging is considered an indulgence, hence an interest in hiking and off-the-grid travel. All of these shifts contributed to the rise of the macrotrend Natural Embrace. Here’s where it shows up in my framework and a snapshot of what it looked a few years ago:
In 2018-2019, Greta Thurnberg led the youth climate strike movement, driving media attention and momentum around climate change issues. Artists like Olafur Eliaisson (Life, 2021) and architects like Gabriela de Matos and Paulo Taveres (Terra, 2023) have long been keen to explore the dialogue between humans and nature. Bolt Farm Treehouse’s ‘Invisible Cabins’ received a lot of press in 2022 for their travel concept offering natural immersion without visual and environmental disruption. In 2023, Dr Alice Eldridge at the University of Sussex launched Wilding.radio — a 24/7 solar-powered broadcast of natural soundscapes. These cultural signals informed Natural Embrace: an optimistic desire to repair our fraught relationship to nature through immersive experiences and intentional interactions designed to inspire reconnection with our surroundings. This also aligned with the popularity of resale and upcycling in fashion, and other ESG-oriented business initiatives.
But all of the above began to feel like too little, too late, as 2024 became the first year-long global breach of the 1.5C limit set by the Paris Agreement. We are running out of time, and we’re increasingly witnessing the devastating consequences of climate change via extreme weather events and catastrophic (un)natural disasters.
My initial, hopeful, prediction would’ve been for this rising urgency to push another macrotrend — Intelligent Resilience or Bioadaptive Balance — to the forefront. This would involve a heightened focus on harnessing technology to promote clean energy and materials innovation; or taking inspiration from nature to build regenerative systems that work symbiotically with our environment. But recent indicators suggest that cultural sentiment is less enthusiastic about taking such aggressive leaps towards sustainable change. Instead, there seems to be more interest in just enjoying what we have, while we have it. This creates lucrative opportunities to further capitalize on scarcity of resources and lack of access via Natural Virtue.2
Although I’ve painted a pretty grim picture here, the idea of nature as a luxury good is only problematic if you’re thinking critically about the broader societal implications. Otherwise, the way that this trend actually shows up in mainstream culture often seems innocuous (though not always):
Natural Virtue: Amidst an accelerating climate crisis, nature is positioned as aspirational and virtuous, with outdoor activities and natural products taking on an increasingly inaccessible level of exclusivity and an attitude of moral superiority.
Elevated Outdoors: Modern day hiking and camping have long been considered inaccessible activities — I used to joke that camping was such a white people thing. Around 2020, there was a movement to make outdoor culture more inclusive (this was part of the original Nature Embrace macrotrend). Grassroots organizations like Hike Clerb led the way, and brands like The North Face made all kinds of DEI commitments (wonder if any of those will stick around). Since then, BIPOC-owned concept spaces like Usal and Forecast were founded to bridge the gap between city and nature with elevated perspectives. Later, as gorpocore was adopted as an it-girl fashion trend, luxury brands like Gucci began playing in the space. Now, despite GQ prematurely claiming it’s past its peak, gorpcore’s stylistic gentrification of the outdoors is simply mainstreaming. I think we’ve only seen the beginning of how nature-focused activities will continue to be commodified.
Au Naturel Luxury: Plant care brand Sowvital creates ‘boutique gardening products’ that are quite beautiful, taking inspiration from beauty & skincare to offer high-end ‘plant serums and spritzes’. In a microtrend that LSN calls ‘Eau de Climate Change’ (🥴), fragrance innovators like O Boticário and Future Society are experimenting with attempts to capture scents in danger of disappearing with the extinction of their source flora and fauna. LSN takes the position that this is a form of activism and integral natural preservation, which is certainly true in some senses. All of these brands and innovations are, on the surface, ethically and sustainably oriented pursuits bringing us closer to nature. But they make me question — how does this prepare us for our future? What happens when there are less plants to care for because the environmental conditions make their growth impossible, or burns them to the ground? Do only wealthy people, who can afford luxury plant serums, get to enjoy greenery? For whom are we preserving extinct landscapes as scents — will only the upper echelons have the chance to experience the sensorial beauty of nature?
Aspirational Sport: The booming intersection of sport and fashion, particularly luxury fashion, has been a trend documented by several outlets. One of the key reasons for this is that sport is one of the last forms of monoculture — it brings people together, regardless of race, religion, or political affiliation. But sport, of course, also fits well with the seemingly neverending rise of wellness culture. House Captain’s recent report quotes the co-founder of tennis-focused brand Court Date on the subject, suggesting that people are “playing tennis because they’re healthy. And want to be more healthy because the definition of wealth is no longer exactly just monetary. People want to work less to have more time to pursue their passions. And this exchange closely aligns with tennis.’’ Yet, it’s interesting that racquet sports, in particular, have been having a moment, since these conventionally connect with country club aesthetics that thrive on aspirational exclusivity. The combination of these factors — the pursuit of health, leisure time, and luxury aesthetics — suggest similar implications for sport as already outlined for outdoor activities.
MAHA Mania: It may have been easy to dismiss all of the above indicators, or perceive them differently, if it wasn’t for MAHA. The wellbeing-focused movement problematically conflates some ostensibly positive intentions - like supporting small regenerative farming projects - with much misinformed pseudoscience and plenty of contradictions. And it’s not going anywhere soon — Andrea of
astutely set the expectation, “MAHA is this Year’s Ozempic,” and explained in a post-election report how these sentiments have infiltrated Gen Alpha youth culture. I don’t need to get into the weeds here; I think we’ve all been forced to endure enough discourse about raw milk and beef tallow and seed oils. But overall, the privilege of hyper-fixating on ‘toxins’ in your skincare or espousing anti-vaccine rhetoric ignores the realities of what the climate crisis has in store for us all, often in the name of profit. It’s not much use arguing whether milk should be raw or pasteurized, when we’re headed towards a future where anything ‘healthy’ will be a luxury commodity.
The four subtrends outlined here may seem disparate at first glance. But as I reflected on where the cultural momentum currenty feels strongest within the Nature drivers space, it was clear that these were the key themes, and that they are all connected to the Natural Embrace macrotrend. What links these themes is a shift in cultural sentiment, moving away from embracing nature-for-all, and towards embracing nature-as-exclusive, creating Natural Virtue.
Most trend reports purposefully avoid drawing these links (and wouldn’t dare to touch MAHA at all). It’s much more palatable, and still truthful, to talk about “Sports x Fashion” as its own thing, with great potential for brand collaborations. That’s because most trend reports are meant to drive business and sales! But I’m approaching this project from more of a cultural theory lens. And from my perspective, as long as climate change continues unmitigated, the commodification of nature as a luxury good will only continue accelerating. Many brands obviously see this as an space ripe with opportunity. As individuals, circumventing this future means taking action to pursue an alternative one.
Addendum: recent post delves deeper into many of the signals discussed in Natural Virtue.
A big part of my struggle with articulating this trend was the name — I’m definitely not a copywriter. Below is a little poll with some options I considered, if you’d like to vote. If you have any additional suggestions, lmk in the comments or by responding, and if I decide to use your name, I’ll change the title and credit you. Tangentially, I find it interesting that all the viral Tiktok trend reporters are so skilled at crafting catchy trend names…
Holding out hope that I’m wrong, and Intelligent Resilience or Bioadaptive Balance pick up more momentum. And if I were thinking about all of this from a brand strategy perspective, I’d prioritize Intelligent Resilience, with a focus on shared resources.
Amazing! and thank you for linking to my post on purity <3
another heater — just binging the archive at this point.